Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Carolina Panthers 18

(3:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 34 yards to CAR 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-26-K.Merriweather.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.78 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model