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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-D.Chark to TB 8 for 30 yards (24-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model