Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(9:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to TB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 43 for 15 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.13 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model