Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 33 for 6 yards (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.15 EP
76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model