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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model