4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CAR 15, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.70 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model