Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

(8:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to CAR 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 35 for 8 yards (26-K.Merriweather, 41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model