Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(10:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model