Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(1:50) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 20 for no gain (42-S.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.28 EP
74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model