Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

(9:20) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to CAR 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 43 for 23 yards (22-C.Edmonds; 98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.88 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model