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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.58 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP