Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 69

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(9:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to ARI 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 35 for 10 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.40 EP
61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model