Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(11:14) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to PIT 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. Penalty on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model