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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model