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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (92-K.Strong, 43-J.Luketa).

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model