Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch. PENALTY on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model