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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.50 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model