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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP