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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TB 35, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-43-T.Denbow.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model