4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model