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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 49

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 73-B.Freeland reported in as eligible. 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox to TB 19 for 30 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-8-S.Dennis was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model