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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Downs (30-D.Delaney).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model