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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 7-M.Gay 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model