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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(:07) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to TB 40 for 6 yards (24-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP