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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model