4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-M.Pittman pushed ob at TB 29 for 24 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model