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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model