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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model