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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to PIT 36, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 33 for -3 yards (38-D.Ivey).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model