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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 10-B.Robbins punts 41 yards to PIT 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds. PENALTY on PIT-49-T.Carpenter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.08 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model