Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 83

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to PIT 39, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 49 for 10 yards (33-N.Scott; 89-D.Sample). PENALTY on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model