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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:33) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to CIN 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -1.59 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model