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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 10-B.Robbins punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP