Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(6:30) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to PIT 40, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 45 for 5 yards (80-A.Iosivas).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model