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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP