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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 37

New England Patriots 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 17-B.Baringer punts 31 yards to NYG 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP