Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 61

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to NE 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-D.Douglas MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 13. 81-D.Douglas pushed ob at NE 20 for 7 yards (52-C.Coughlin).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model