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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 44

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:58) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short left to 7-J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at NYG 39 for 5 yards (22-A.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model