Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 72

New England Patriots 7 – New York Giants 10

(5:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.13 EP
76% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model