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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 40

New York Giants 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to NE 9, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.37 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model