4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 42

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Arizona Cardinals 8

What Actually Happened

(:40) 42-E.Evans punts 32 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model