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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 8 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(:43) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to LA 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-44-O.Pappoe.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model