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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 31

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Arizona Cardinals 8

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 8-L.Havrisik 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model