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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 7 at the 12
Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 29
What Actually Happened
(6:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 87-S.LaPorta.
The Three Options
GO
+1.69 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP
KICK
+1.62 EP
- 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT
-0.46 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
