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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 29 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to DET 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.31 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model