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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 31

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 29

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at GB 39 for -8 yards (52-R.Gary). FUMBLES (52-R.Gary) [52-R.Gary], touched at GB 39, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at GB 39.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP