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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 77

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin right tackle to DET 23 for no gain (90-L.Van Ness, 94-K.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.20 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model