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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 23 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 19-D.Whelan punts 44 yards to DET 3, impetus ends at DET 1, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP