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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 89

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(:13) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to GB 44, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 25-K.Nixon.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 89, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 46, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model