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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 35

Detroit Lions 6 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 8-J.Reynolds (91-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model